WEATHER: Hot But Not Time To Go Back To Work!

Illustration: Keeping Safe When Shopping by Anna Shvets from Pexels [Pexel license]

We're expecting some big swings in our temperatures. A trough of low pressure will soon be replaced by a ridge of high pressure, which will build into our area on Friday.

The Global Ensemble Forecast (GEFS) indicates a high certainty of unseasonably hot weather. Our local weather model indicates that temperature should peak from the lower 30sC/80sF (central mountain areas) to upper 30sC/90sF along the coast and normally hotter desert areas.

The heat will be short-lived, though, as Monday should be substantially cooler as a trough of lower pressure returns. The seven days of Peach should have moderate temperatures with local showers. Moisture will be present at lower and upper levels, but humidity levels in the middle atmosphere will not be high enough to bring any prolonged heavy rain.

It's some big swings in our temperatures, and residents are advised to be sure that their air conditioners are in working order — as the heat will be intense in some areas.

It's fortunate that I am keeping track of the weather. Since I became home-bound with the rest of you, I have trouble remembering the days of the week. Now, since the clock changed, I can't seem to figure out what hour it is.

I read a recent Opinion column entitled, "It is time to end this misguided social experiment, get back to work!" The authors tried to tell us that the COVID-19 coronavirus is really not much to worry about, while falsely referring to a much lower mortality rate than the apparent mortality rate. One can argue that we don't really know all those that are sick, so therefore we don't really know the mortality rate, but try telling that to a emergency room doctor in NYC, where hospitals are overrun with patients. Simply, the coronavirus is terribly contagious and has made even younger people very sick (or worse).

One of the points of the article was that there is a cost to closing the economy that is yet (mostly) uncounted, and this is true. However, in order to calculate whether to open the economy one needs to weigh the risks to health and life against the other costs. This should be done — and targeted openings should be considered — but only by those who actually recognise the severity of the disease.

To sum up: there are those who hate "big government" and government regulations but as the United States has clearly shown, too little government and too little planning is simply too little government too late.

One last thing to remember: hand washing, wearing gloves while shopping, etc., and covering your face have been recently shown to be the best protection of all.

[Please note: Dr. Lynn's complete and accurate weather forecast can be found here. Editor]

Dr. Lynn is a lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Earth Sciences Department. He is also CEO of Weather It Is, LTD, a company that specializes in reducing weather risk. Click here to read more of this writer’s work in The Jerusalem Herald.