Weather: First Rains Far Off - No Harvey in Sight

Illustration: (Image credit: Wix)

The weather is simply nice. There's a light breeze, and temperatures are in the mid-twenties (upper 70s F). The nice weather should continue throughout the week as low pressure over the Mediterranean combines with higher pressure over Africa to maintain a west (or northwesterly) wind.

Of course, we are moving closer to our rainy season. For this to happen, the monsoon over India needs to weaken and recede eastward, allowing temperatures aloft to fall. The falling temperatures will allow clouds to build in height, which is necessary for droplets to turn into rain drops large enough to reach the ground.

One place where there has been no problem making rain is Texas. The amounts that have fallen there in a day or two are about the same amounts we would normally receive here in the Jerusalem area during our entire winter.

There have been winter storms that bring about 100 mm or so of rain (and occasionally in fall there is even heavier rain in coastal areas), but this isn't close to the widespread amounts that are falling and will fall over there. Such heavy rain requires a good supply of moisture, which the Gulf of Mexico is amply providing. It was also warm enough to combine with favorable conditions aloft to create the category 4 hurricane ("Harvey") that devastated Rockport Texas (and now torments the state with heavy rain as a tropical storm).

These types of storms, and these types of heavy rain are what scientists fear will become more prevalent if the world continues to warm. The likelihood of such storms will depend on atmospheric conditions aloft, which could either change to favor or disfavor such storms. Hopefully, the global warming naysayers are correct, and elevated CO2 levels will not lead to much global warming. But, should we take the chance?

Complete weather details can be found here.